全球变化过程的数学模拟和定量预测  

MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION AND QUANTITATIVE PREDICTION OF GLOBAL CHANGE PROCESS

作　　者：刘承祚[1] 刘东生[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质研究所

出　　处：《第四纪研究》1993年第2期97-108,共12页Quaternary Sciences

摘　　要：本文首先介绍了全球变化过程数学模拟问题的由来、主要研究内容和重要意义,进一步讨论了全球变化过程综合模拟的数学模型及其已经取得的进展和系统分析的可能应用,然后介绍了过去全球变化过程的数学模拟以及已有的部分区域性工作基础和几种数学方法的可能应用。作者综述了GCM模型的应用现状和存在问题,并讨论了全球变化过程的定最预测,分析了若干新技术的可能应用,提出了对开展此项工作的看法和建议。General trend in natural sciences is the development from qualitative researches to quantitative ones. Generally, range and depth of quantitative researches reflect the level and degree of maturity of a discipline. Global change researches deal with the subiects of common interest and great importance. They are highly comprehensive, complicated and difficult problems and attract attention of scientists of the world. Specialists of various disciplines and research field are utilizing many new and advanced methods and means, including quantitative methods and mathematical simulation. In our opinion, quantitative researches of global change process may be divided into the following three parts: 1) mathematical simulation of present global change process; 2) mathematical simulation of past global change process; 3) quantitative prediction of global change processes. Each of the above- mentioned parts has its own characteristics in research subject and mathematical means. For the purpose of mathematical simulation of global change processes, an integrated model of Earth system is introduced and reviewed. The integrated Earth system model consists of many subsystems that couple the various parts of Earth system. For example, the following model can be given, such as models that couple the terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, models that couple physics and chemistry in the atmosphere and models that couple the ocean and the atmosphere. In this paper system analysis is proposed as a mathematical tool for integrated modeling of the Earth system. According to one of the core projects of IGCP, the emphasized time interval, for past global change researches are from 2000a B. P. and 0.15Ma B. P. to present. Generally researches of past global change processes consist of studies in global scale and studies in regional scale and the mathematical models shall be constructed based on geological conceptual models. So that the conceptual model for the region within the territory of China may be set up based on the followin

关 键 词：全球变化过程 数学模拟 定量预测 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]