一种用于评价全球气候变化对中国南方水稻生产影响的效应模型——RCCMOD  

RCCMOD:An Effect Model to Assess the Application of Global Climate Change on Rice Production in Southern China

作　　者：陈华[1] 金之庆[2] 葛道阔[2] 石春林[2] 高亮之[2] 魏秀芳[2] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省农业科学院科技情报研究所,江苏南京210014 [2]江苏省农业科学院农业资源与环境研究中心,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《江苏农业学报》2004年第3期129-134,共6页Jiangsu Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(30030090);国家自然科学基金项目(30370815)

摘　　要：　将自主研制的水稻栽培计算机模拟优化决策系统(RCSODS)改造为适于全球气候变化影响评价的水稻效应模型(RCCMOD);利用中国南方9个有代表性样点的水稻区域试验资料与同期同地的天气资料,对RCCMOD进行可靠性检验;将RCCMOD分别在研究区域基准气候(Baseline)和3种基于大气环流模型(GCMs)的(2×CO2)气候变化情景下运行,并将模拟结果与同样条件下CERES Rice模型的模拟结果进行了比较,两者基本一致。The RCSODS model developed by the authors before was modified into an effect model (RCCMOD) used as a tool to assess the applications of global climate change on rice production in China;the RCCMOD was validated and calibrated based on the crop data and weather data collected from 9 sites in southern China;then the RCCMOD was run respectively with the baseline weather (1960—1997)and three GCM-based climate change scenarios of (2×CO2) and finally a comparison was made between the simulated results of RCCMOD and those of CERES-Rice under the same conditions and an agreement was obtained for both.

关 键 词：全球气候变化 中国南方水稻 RCCMOD 效应模型 计算机模拟优化决策系统 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]