我国重大气候灾害的形成机理和预测理论研究综述  

Advances of the Project of the Formation Mechanism and Prediction Theory of Severe Climatic Disasters in China

作　　者：黄荣辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所

出　　处：《中国基础科学》2004年第4期6-16,共11页China Basic Science

基　　金：国家 973计划项目--我国重大气候和天气灾害形成机理与预测理论研究 (G1 9980 4 0 80 0 )

摘　　要：鉴于我国气候灾害的严重性 ,本项目把 2 0世纪 80年代以来所发生的我国旱涝重大气候灾害作为项目研究的切入点 ,从气候系统各圈层的变化及其相互作用 ,特别是从气候系统中海 陆 气各子系统的变化及其相互作用对我国重大气候灾害发生的机理入手进行了深入分析研究 ,提出了与我国旱涝重大气候灾害形成机理有关的新理论 ;并且 ,在对我国旱涝重大气候灾害发生有重要影响的ENSO循环和青藏高原热力作用的机理和数值模式研究方面取得新的突破 ,从而使我国对ENSO事件预测水平有了较大提高 ;项目在上述理论研究的基础上提出了我国跨季度和年度气候异常的数值预测系统 ,研制出新一代气候数值模式 ,并利用此系统成功地预测了我国 1998— 2 0 0 2年夏季发生的严重旱涝气候灾害。此外 ,项目还成功地进行了我国西北干旱区陆 气相互作用观测试验 ,获取了许多有关我国典型干旱区陆 气相互作用宝贵的科学观测数据 ,并得出许多原创性的科学结果 ,为开发大西北提供了可靠的气候环境资料。这些成果的取得 ,不仅为今后开展我国重大气候灾害的发生规律、成因与预测研究奠定了坚实的理论和数值模型基础 ,而且对于国家旱涝气候灾害预测水平的提高 ,减轻气候灾害造成的经济损失具有重要的经济和社会效益。项目还培养了一批从事气?Due to the severity of drought and flood disasters in China, research of the project started from severe climatic disasters such as droughts and floods occurred in China from the 1980s of the 20th century, and made in\|depth analyses of the formation mechanism of severe climatic disasters from the variabilities of various spheres of climate system and their interactions, especially from the variabilities of subsystems of sea\|land\|air of climate system and their interactions, and put forward new theories related to the formation mechanism of severe climatic disasters in China. Moreover, new breakthrough in the studies on mechanism and numerical model of ENSO cycle and the thermal effect of the Tibetan Plateau, which have an important effect on the occurrence of severe climatic disasters in China, has been achieved, respectively, and this made the increase of the predicting level of ENSO events in China. Based on the above\|mentioned theoretic studies, the project proposed a numerical prediction system for extraseasonal and annual anomalies of climate and designed a new\|generation numerical climate model, and using this prediction system, the severe climatic disasters of droughts and floods occurred in China from 1998 to 2002 were predicted successfully. Besides, the project successfully carried out the “Observational Experiment on the Air\|Land Interaction in Arid Regions of Northwest China”, which has obtained many valuable scientific observational data associated with air\|land interaction in the typical arid\|regions of China and many scientific results with original innovation have been achieved. These may provide reliable data of climate and environment for the strategy of opening up Northwest China. These research achievements not only built up a solid basis of theory and numerical model for the study on regularity of the occurrence, cause and prediction of severe climatic disasters, but also are of great economic and social benefit for the increase of the prediction level of climatic disasters of dro

关 键 词：气候灾害 形成机理 预测理论 ENSO循环 热力作用 数值预测系统 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]