气温和降水时变影响参数的多步预测模型  

MULTI-STEP FORECASTING MODEL OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE TIME-VARYING INFLUENCE PARAMETER

作　　者：李祚泳[1] 张辉军[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都气象学院,四川省成都市610041

出　　处：《高原气象》1993年第4期425-431,共7页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目

摘　　要：本文提出了一种气温和降水时变影响参数的多步预测建模新方案。该方案用时间序列均生函数外延矩阵生成的主分量作基函数对时序变量建模,同时考虑变量前期数据对后期数据的影响,在模型中引入一个时变影响参数K_t.并用方差分析法求出K_t的显著周期和未来时刻的K_(1+1)值,从而建立气温和降水序列的时变影响参数的多步预测模型。该模型用于四川省20个地、市的气温和降水预报数值试验,其历史拟合率和试报结果与实况值的比较表明,该模型可用于时序变量的多步预测。In this paper, a new multi-step forecasting model of temperature and precipitation series based on the time-varying influence parameter is presented. The approach is based on to consider the influence of the earlier stage values on later stage values. Time-varying parameter Kt is introduced into the model of principal component generated by mean generating function of temporal sequence. The multi-step forecasting model of temperature and precipitation series is developed by the time-varying parameter values Kj+1 calculated with significance periods of K. The models are used to multi-step forecasting of temperature and precipitation in 20 regions of Sichuan. The comparison of fitting test and forecasting results with real values show that this model can be used in multi-step forecasting of time series variate.

关 键 词：气温 降水 时变参数 预测模型 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]