经常购买模型及其参数的极大似然估计  

Frequent-purchased Models and Maximum Likelihood Estimationfor Its Parameters

作　　者：乔忠[1] 王福华[1] 刘巍[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《系统工程》2004年第6期25-28,共4页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(79970067)

摘　　要：在分析巴斯模型和重复购买的产品生命周期模型等的基础上,提出经常购买模型,详细讨论该模型的参数的极大似然估计法,并采用实例检验模型及参数估计方法,分析模型的参数估计结果,在此基础上使用模型做产品销量预测,表明模型的参数估计方法及预测方法的有效性。In this article, based on analysis of the innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance originally considered by Bass(1969) and the life cycle model of repurchased product, a frequent-purchased model has been presented, and the (maximum) likelihood estimation for this model has been discussed particularly. The model is validated with the actual data (from) typical commodities, and the results of parameter estimation are analyzed. The predictions on some commodities are (made) by using the model with the results showing that the parameter estimation of the model and the prediction approach is valid.

关 键 词：产品生命周期模型 经常购买模型 极大似然估计 预测 

分 类 号：F713.50[经济管理—市场营销]