趋势面分析法在传染病地理分布研究中的应用  

Application of the trend-surface analysis for surveillance of geographical distribution of communicable diseases.

作　　者：裘炯良[1] 郑剑宁[1] 周健 孙智夫 

机构地区：[1]宁波出入境检验检疫局卫生检疫处,浙江宁波315012 [2]宁波市传染病医院,浙江宁波315012 [3]舟山市岱山疾病预防控制中心,浙江舟山316200

出　　处：《中国热带医学》2004年第5期689-691,702,共4页China Tropical Medicine

基　　金：卫生部基金资助项目 (NO .WKZ - 2 0 0 1 - 1 - 1 7)

摘　　要：目的　探讨趋势面分析法在传染病地理分布研究中的应用。　方法　以多元回归分析理论为基础 ,构造趋势面回归数学模型 ,将不同地点的经纬座标及特定传染病发病数据代入模型 ,并依据模型方程计算结果通过特定计算机软件 ,绘制趋势面分析图。　结果　获得舟山某病的趋势面分析图及地理分布规律。　结论　该方法可用于分析疾病地理分布系统和局部变异情况 ,进而有利于分析疾病分布相关的地理环境因素。Objective To explore the application and its effect of the Trend-surface analysis on surveillance of geographical distribution of communicable diseases. Methods The trend-surface regressional model was constructed based on multiple regression.The data of surveillance for communicable diseases were divided into and residual parts,then corresponding trend-surface diagram was drawn according to the mathematical model. Results The quantitative method was acquired,which could be used for monitoring geographical distribution of communicable diseases.And it was also confirmed by analysis of the data of some disease in Zhoushan Islands. Conclusion This method can be used for analyzing the geographical distribution of communicable diseases,and demonstrating the variational trend of prevalent rate.For this reason,this method is an useful tool for exploring the pathogenesis of communicable diseases in geographical epidemiology.

关 键 词：传染病 趋势面分析 疾病分布 发病数 局部 回归数学模型 特定 析图 地理环境因素 和局 

分 类 号：R735[医药卫生—肿瘤] G633[医药卫生—临床医学]