应用队列研究方法检验饮酒与肠癌发病的联系  

Alcohol drinking and colorectal cancer:a population-based prospective cohort study

作　　者：陈坤[1] 蒋沁婷[1] 俞维萍[1] 马新源 郑树[3] 金明娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学医学院流行病与卫生统计教研室,浙江杭州310031 [2]浙江嘉善肿瘤研究所,浙江嘉善314100 [3]浙江大学医学院附属第二医院,浙江杭州310009

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（医学版）》2004年第5期411-415,共5页Journal of Zhejiang University(Medical Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金支持项目 ( 30 170 82 8)

摘　　要：目的 :了解饮酒者与非饮酒者人群中肠癌发病情况 ,验证饮酒与肠癌发病之间的关系。方法 :以 1989年5月 - 1990年 4月期间 ,参加浙江省嘉善县肠癌筛检的 10个乡镇 30岁及以上人口共 6 410 2人为研究队列 ,其中2 9 0 4 4名饮酒者为暴露组 ,其余为非暴露组。随访时间为 1990年 5月 1日至 2 0 0 1年 12月 1日 ,观察队列的肠癌发病情况 ,应用 Cox回归模型计算两者的相对危险度 (RR)。结果 :全队列 6 410 2人 ,共观察 6 5 810 0 .2 4人年。暴露组2 9 0 4 4人 ,随访 2 984 97.2 3人年 ;非暴露组 35 32 8人 ,随访 35 96 0 3.0 1人年。全队列中合计肠癌新发病例 2 4 2例 ,其中暴露组新发病例 10 8例 ,发病密度为 36 .18/10万 ,非暴露组新发 134例 ,发病密度为 37.2 6 /10万 ,两者相比无显著性差异 (Z=0 .5 2 ,P>0 .0 5 ) ;饮酒与肠癌发病的粗 RR值为 0 .97(95 % CI为 0 .75～ 1.2 5 ) ,调整 RR值为 1.13(95 %CI为 0 .87～ 1.4 8)无统计学显著意义。经计算 ,本研究的检验效能 (1- β)为 96 .99%。结论 :在嘉善县人群中 。Objective: To understand the incidence of colorectal cancer in population drinking or not and to validate the relationship between drinking and colorectal cancer. Methods: The data obtained from a questionnaire used in a population based prospective screenings study in ten countries of Jiashan County was examined. A total of 64 102 men and women aged 30 y and older without history of cancer at baseline and a subcohort of 29 044 of them drinking past and current was conducted. Cox regression model was applied to estimate relative risk (RR). Results: After 10 years follow up, 107 colon cancer and 135 rectal cancer cases were identified. Among drinkers and abstainers, the incidence density of colorectal cancer was 36 18 per 100 thousand and 37 26 per 100 thousand, respectively and there wasn't statistical significance( Z =0 52, P >0 05); The crude RR (95%CI) for drinker compared with never drinkers was 0 97(0 75～1 25), and the multivariable adjusted RR (95%CI) was 1 13(0 87～1 48). The research power of this study was 96 99%. Conclusion: Alcohol drinking isn't one of the risk factors of colorectal cancer among Jiashan County population.

关 键 词：结直肠肿瘤 流行病学 饮酒 COX回归 发病率 

分 类 号：R735.3[医药卫生—肿瘤]