单周期产品需求不确定性对供应链合作的影响  

Effect of demand uncertainty on supply chain cooperation for single-period product

作　　者：华中生[1] 孙毅彪[1] 李四杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学管理科学系,合肥230026

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2004年第5期40-48,共9页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70172041);安徽省自然科学基金资助项目(03042308).

摘　　要：合作是提高供应链竞争力的途径,也是增强供应链企业抵御经营风险的重要手段.研究了由一个生产商和一个零售商组成的两层供应链,用变异系数(需求的均方差与其均值之比)描述单周期产品市场需求的不确定性.研究发现在一定的市场需求不确定性条件下,生产商与零售商才存在合作博弈均衡;通过市场需求不确定性的变化对合作均衡与合作效果影响的数值分析,及其与非合作情形的对比,结果说明在给定的零售价格水平下,合作具有改善供应链企业应对市场需求不确定性变化和规避经营风险的能力.Cooperation is an approach to improve the competitive advantages of a supply chain, and it is also a means of business risk avoiding for the enterprises in the supply chain. A two_echelon supply chain consists of a manufacturer and a retailer is studied, and the demand uncertainty is described by variance coefficient for single-period product. It is proved that the cooperative game equilibrium only exists under the condition that the variance coefficient doesn't exceed certain value. By numerical analysis of influence of demand uncertainty on cooperative game equilibrium and cooperation effects, and by comparing the cooperative with the non-cooperative under given retailing price, cooperation is found to improve the ability of supply chain to deal with market demand uncertainty and business risk.

关 键 词：供应链 单周期产品 需求不确定 合作博弈 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]