启东肝癌发病趋势的年龄-时期-队列模型分析  

An age-period-cohort modelling study on primary liver cancer incidence rate in Qidong

作　　者：沈其君[1] 张雪峰[2] 陈建国[3] 李文广[3] 姚红玉[3] 

机构地区：[1]宁波大学医学院,315211 [2]江苏省疾病预防控制中心 [3]江苏省启东肝癌防治研究所

出　　处：《中华流行病学杂志》2004年第10期902-904,共3页Chinese Journal of Epidemiology

摘　　要：目的 反映启东地区肝癌发病的时间变化趋势、出生队列效应和年龄的作用方式。方法 应用年龄-时期-队列模型对启东地区肝癌发病监测资料进行统计分析。结果 时间趋势变化主要呈队列趋势变化,表现出男性1913～1917年和1958～1962年以后的出生队列的发病危险性有减缓的趋势。结论 可以推断1958～1962年以后的出生队列的发病危险性有下降的趋势,是综合防治措施的实施结果。Objective To analyze the incidence trends of primary liver cancer (PLC) in Qidong. Methods Data of PLC incidence from 1975 to 1999 in Qidong were analyzed to delineate temporal trends and birth cohort patterns, using age-period-cohort models. Results Significant moderation or decreasing trends were began to notice in incidence rates on cohorts born in 1913-1917 and 1958-1962. Conclusion Results showed that the incidence risk of the birth cohorts after 1958-1962 started to decline. The changes were possibly associated with the implementation of some practical measures on prevention.

关 键 词：肝癌 年龄 发病危险性 发病趋势 出生 男性 发病监测 时期 综合防治措施 作用方式 

分 类 号：R735.7[医药卫生—肿瘤]