水驱抽油机井管杆偏磨可靠性模糊故障树分析  

Fuzzy Fault-Free Reliability Analysis of Off-center Abrasive Wear of Sucker Rod Used for Water-drive Pumping Well

作　　者：张玉斌[1] 薛春芳[1] 张彦[2] 

机构地区：[1]大庆石油学院机械系,大庆163318 [2]中国石油管道研究院,廊坊065000

出　　处：《石油工业技术监督》2004年第10期10-12,共3页Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry

基　　金：中国石油天然气集团公司质量安全环保部科技攻关项目(CNPC2001-02)

摘　　要：应用模糊集运算规则及性质构建模糊故障树模型,采用最小和最大模糊算子简化故障树结构函数的计算过程。从概率结构重要度的定义出发,通过语言变量表达底事件发生状态的模糊性,将底事件随机发生时的模糊性考虑进来,从而使故障树分析中,将底事件发生的随机性和模糊性同时处理成为可能。利用模糊距离概念,将底事件结构重要度概念从概率空间推广到模糊集中,得到模糊距离重要度。这样,当底事件发生状态不能明确规定时,模糊距离重要度在评价其贡献方面是非常有效地。通过对水驱抽油机井管杆偏磨失效模糊故障树实例分析,找出发生管杆偏磨失效的最薄弱环节,为科学治理和有效控制管杆偏磨失效,降低水驱抽油机井检泵率提供充分依据。A fuzzy fault tree model is established by applying the rules and properties of fuzzy set operation, and the computational process of fault tree′s structural function is simplified by applying minimum and maximum operators. Based on the definition of probability structure importance, the fuzziness of bottom event happening may be expressed in form of verbal variables and the fuzziness of random happening of bottom events may be taken into consideration, thus making it possible to handle simultaneously the randomness and fuzziness of bottom event occurrence. The importance of fuzzy distance can be obtained by extending the concept of structural importance of bottom event from probability space to fuzzy set, in the light of the concept of fuzzy distance. In this way, when the happening state of a bottom event cannot be determined clearly, the importance of fuzzy distance is very effective in evaluating its contribution. By making a fuzzy fault tree analysis of side-abrasion failure of sucker rod of water-drive pumping well, the weakest link that contributes to the failure is found out, thus providing sufficient basis for scientific handling and effective control of sucker rod′s side-abrasion failure so as to lower the checkup rate of water-drive pumping unit.

关 键 词：管杆 抽油机井 偏磨 水驱 检泵率 结构重要度 失效 距离概念 函数 计算过程 

分 类 号：TE933[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备] G633[文化科学—教育学]