采用模糊技术分时段处理实现的短期负荷预报  

Short-term Load Forecasting for Special Times Using Fuzzy Inference Method

作　　者：金吉芬 

机构地区：[1]中铝中州分公司,河南焦作454174

出　　处：《华北水利水电学院学报》2004年第4期41-43,共3页North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power

摘　　要：采用模糊理论对日负荷曲线预报中的天气因素进行了模糊处理,根据季节、气候的不同对天气因素做不同的模糊处理和不同数学模型,建立了专家处理系统,提高了短期负荷预测的精度.通过对河南省某市级电力系统日负荷曲线的模拟预测,虽然仅对天气做了模糊处理,但预测结果令人满意.Fuzzy theory is adopted to alter the fuzzy coefficient to vary with the weather changes in the daily load forecasting. It deals with the fuzzy coefficient and builds a different model to vary with the weather and season changes. An expert system is established. The results of short-term load forecasting are improved accurately. The system has been exercised to the daily load forecasting in a city power system of Henan province. It does merely deal with the fuzzy coefficient to vary with the weather changes and does not with the temperature and humidity, but the results are satisfactory.

关 键 词：日负荷曲线 模糊理论 短期负荷预报 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] O159[理学—数学]