基于D-S证据理论的工程投标决策研究  

On the Bidding Decision Model Based on Evidential Reasoning

作　　者：吴唤群[1] 向和平[2] 王壮志[2] 龚国清[2] 

机构地区：[1]广州大学,广东广州510405 [2]长沙理工大学,湖南长沙410076

出　　处：《系统工程》2004年第11期90-94,共5页Systems Engineering

摘　　要：工程投标决策是一类典型的具有不确定性、不完备信息的多属性决策问题。证据理论能够处理"不确 定性"和"不完备性",并能基于合成法则进行信息合成。探讨了不确定信息的定量描述及规范化、信度函数的 表达方法等问题,探讨了基于Dempster-Shafer合成法则的证据组合理论,提出了用于求解不确定多属性投标 决策问题的D-S证据理论二级递阶推理决策模型。最后实例验证了该方法的可行性、有效性和实用性。Based on the evidence reason theory, an evidential reasoning decision model was proposed which was used to solve the problem of bid decision with uncertainty information. Firstly we discussed the description and normalization with respect to the uncertainty and uncompleteness information, and presented a belief function and describtion of the uncertainty information. Then the bidding decision model based on the evidential reason was presented. At last examples showed that the method is reasonable and efficient.

关 键 词：D-S证据理论 不确定性 多属性决策 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]