华北地区降水变化的多时间尺度分析  

Analysis on the Change of Precipitation in Multiple Temporal Scales in North China

作　　者：张利平[1] 朱存稳[1] 夏军[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2004年第4期548-552,共5页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程项目(KZCX2-SW-317);国家自然科学基金(50379040)

摘　　要：利用功率谱、小波分析及突变分析方法分析了我国华北地区25个台站68月降水量115年的变化。结果表明其存在着2～5a左右的甚低频振荡,10～20a和60a左右两个主要长周期振荡,上世纪末至本世纪10年代、50年代至70年代末为多雨时段,20年代至40年代末、80年代至90年代为少雨阶段。由突变分析结果表明,华北地区降水量具有明显的阶段性变化,在20世纪10年代和20世纪60年代左右发生了两次突变,其旱涝阶段同小波分析的结果具有很好的一致性。North China is located in the arid/semi arid region, is one of the regions in shortage of water resources in China, the per capita volume and per unit area volume of water resources in north China are only 1/6 and 1/10 of the averages respectively in China, and the precipitation is the main source of water resources. However, the precipitation in north China has reduced since the mid 1960s, especially during the period from the 1980s to the 1990s, which has resulted in the more serious shortage of water resources and restricted the industrial and agriculture production and the regional economic development. In this paper, the change of precipitation in north China since recent 115 years is analyzed by means of power spectrum, wavelet analysis and abrupt change analysis. The results show that there were the periodic precipitation fluctuations of 2～5 years and the long term periodic precipitation fluctuations of 10～20 years and about 60 years. In north China, the period from the late 1890s to the 1910s and from the 1950s to the late 1970s were the rainy periods, the periods from the 1920s to the late 1940s and from the 1980s to the 1990s were the drought periods. The analysis on the abrupt change of precipitation reveals that the precipitation change is periodic, two times of the abrupt change of precipitation occurred in the 1910s and the 1960s respectively. The flood or drought periods accorded well with the results of the wavelet analysis.

关 键 词：多时间尺度分析 降水变化 华北地区 旱涝 月降水量 台站 年代 左右 突变分析 方法分析 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]