基于马尔可夫链的产品市场保有量预测模型  

The Markov-Chain-Based Model for the Forecast of the Market Maintenance of Products

作　　者：浦贵阳[1] 李小东[1] 张林屹[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学管理学院,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2005年第1期92-95,共4页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University(Social Sciences)

摘　　要：　售后服务机构为了准确地准备库存,都需要预测产品的市场保有量。基于马尔可夫链建立的状态概率矩阵模型,与抽样调查、时间序列法、回归分析法等方法相比,更能准确预测市场产品保有量。与传统产品相比较,更新换代速度快的电子产品,要预测其市场保有量,更需要利用状态概率矩阵模型。All the after-sale service organizations need to forecast the market maintenance of their products in order to have an appropriate stock. And the state probability matrix model based on the Markov chain offers better forecast of the market maintenance of products than other methods like sampling investigation, time sequencing and regression analysis. Compared with traditional products, electronic products, which enjoy faster upgrading, call for more utilization of the state probability matrix model.

关 键 词：市场保有量 产品市场 库存 预测 传统产品 售后服务 电子产品 品相 准确 速度 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]