海上消防系统风险分析探讨  

Risk Study of Marine Fire-Proof System

作　　者：韩圣章[1] 郭海涛[2] 阎宏生[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300072 [2]国家海洋技术中心,天津300111

出　　处：《海洋技术》2004年第4期85-89,共5页Ocean Technology

基　　金：国家教育部博士点基金资助项目(98005616)

摘　　要：平台消防系统可靠与否直接影响到平台及平台操作人员的安全。文章在采用故障树方法对平台消防系统发生失效的路径及可能性进行分析。针对有些事件的发生频率极小但危险性极大的问题,引入危险度的概念,对可靠性进行量化,即计算产生概率,同时提出了计算模糊事件概率期望值的方法。为有效评估油气生产系统的安全性,以及建立起稳定可靠的功能服务系统提供了理论依据。The reliability of marine emergency system will affect the safety of platform and its operator. In this paper, fault tree method was adopted to analyze the failure routine and possibility of the marine emergency system. Due to the small frequency and high danger of some events,hazard degree concept was involved to quantify the possibility. At the same time, probability expectation calculation method of fuzzy event was developed. This procedure supplied theoretic evidence for safety assessment for oil and gas production system and establishment of stable and reliable function service system.

关 键 词：风险分析 功能服务 直接影响 油气生产 系统 平台 路径 概率 期望值 海上 

分 类 号：P716.7[天文地球—海洋科学] G633[文化科学—教育学]