基于时间序列模型的我国中部地区国内生产总值预测分析  

Forecast and Analysis of Gross Domestic Product Based on Time-Series Model in Central Region of China

作　　者：胡树华[1] 管顺丰[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学中部发展研究中心中部区域创新发展战略研究课题组,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2005年第1期24-25,共2页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家重大软科学项目(2003DG000010)

摘　　要：通过建立时间序列模型,对中部地区的湖北、湖南、河南、江西和安徽5省GDP进行预测,指出中部地区GDP发展趋势,并通过与全国GDP的比较,找出中部地区GDP的发展差距,并得出相关结论。Gross domestic product is a basic measurement which can reflect the economic activity of the region. The central region, including Hubei, Hunan, Henan, Jiangxi, Anhui, has the advantage of position and resource. It can connect the east region with the west, as well as the south and the north. This region has important strategic significance to the national economy development. This paper forecasts the gross domestic product of central region and points the development trend by building the time-series model. Through comparing with the gross domestic product of China, the central region can find the development gaps. It also puts forward the conclusion.

关 键 词：时间序列模型 中部地区 国内生产总值 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]