CAPPS1和CAPPS2数值预报模式对比分析  

Contrast Between CAPPS1 and CAPPS2 Numerical Prediction Models

作　　者：李雄 

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象台,南宁530022

出　　处：《气象科技》2004年第6期414-416,424,共4页Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：对CAPPS1模式和CAPPS2模式预报广西污染物进行了对比分析。主要对比了其污染扩散原理、气象预报模式、操作系统、运行时间、预报时效及预报效果。分析表明 :CAPPS1和CAPPS2模式对各种污染物预报的相关系数均在 0 4 4以上 ,两种模式预报广西空气污染都是可行的 ;两种模式均对SO2 的预报效果最好 ,NO2 次之 ,PM 10相对最差 ;CAPPS2模式对各种污染物的预报值与实测值相关系数均比CAPPS1高 ,其中NO2 的相关系数提高幅度最大 ;CAPPS2模式对NO2 和PM10的预报准确率比CAPPS1偏高 ,而对SO2 的预报准确率比CAPPS1偏低 ;CAPPS2预报首要污染物正确率比CAPPS1高出 11个百分点 ,而预报首要污染物等级正确率则高出 9个百分点。A contrast analysis of CAPPS1 and CAPPS2 prediction models for Guang Xi air quality was conducted, including their pollutant diffusion theories, weather forecasting models, operating systems, run time, and valid time. It is concluded that both CAPPS1 and CAPPS2 models have a correlation coefficient of over 0 44 for all kinds of pollutants, and both models are applicable to air quality forecasts in Guang Xi and have the best prediction precision on SO 2, the second on NO 2 , while PM10 prediction is relatively worse. CAPPS2 has higher correlation coefficients for all pollutants than CAPPS1 with the highest on NO 2. In contrast to CAPPS1, CAPPS2 has higher prediction precision on NO 2 and PM10 and lower prediction precision on SO 2. The prediction precision of CAPPS2 on chief pollutant is 11 percent higher than those of CAPPS1, and 9 percent higher for grade prediction.

关 键 词：CAPPS 预报准确率 预报效果 数值预报模式 气象预报 实测值 相关系数 污染物 PM10 SO2 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]