AREM及其对2003年汛期降水的模拟  

AREM AND ITS SIMULATIONS ON THE DAILY RAINFALL IN SUMMER IN 2003

作　　者：宇如聪[1] 徐幼平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所

出　　处：《气象学报》2004年第6期715-724,共10页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 :我国重大天气灾害形成机理与预测理论研究 (G19980 40 90 6);我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预测的理论和方法研究 (2 0 0 4CB4183 0 0 )

摘　　要：文中回顾了一个能考虑陡峭复杂地形的有限区域 η坐标数值预报模式 (RegionalEta coordinateModel,简称REM )十几年来的发展和应用过程 ,列举了该模式系统在气象、水文、环境和军事保障等科研和业务单位的主要应用。同时介绍了在此基础上发展升级的暴雨数值预报模式 (AdvancedREM ,简称AREM )。由于 (A)REM抓住了中国区域的地形和天气特点 ,已成为模拟和预报中国天气和环境灾害的重要工具 ,在环境治理、抗洪抢险、防灾减灾以及军事气象保障中发挥了重要作用。通过分析新版本AREM对 2 0 0 3年夏季中国东部区域降水过程的模拟和预报结果 ,反映了AREM对中国东部区域降水的模拟和预报能力 ,再现了 2 0 0 3年夏季中国东部主要降水过程的雨量分布和演变特征。ARM对主要降水区域平均降水量的逐日预报与观测基本一致。它不仅对发生在淮河流域的较大范围的降水预报如此 ,而且对有些受地形强迫影响的局部强降水中心 ,预报结果也与观测基本一致。Facing significant effects of the Tibetan Plateau and many other steep mountains on the weather, especially on the precipitation in China, a regional Eta-coodinate model (REM) has been developed since 1980s and the REM has been popularly used not only to the summer precipitation predictions and the heavy rainfall studies but also to related simulation studies in hydrology and environment in China since 1990s. According to distinct atmospheric circulation and complex terrain features in China and learning from the current state-of-arts models, such as, NCEP Eta-model, MM5, ARPS, IAP-model, CMA HLAFS, et al., REM was paid much attention on handling topography, moisture advection and minimizing artificial diffusion. Because of well handling with topography and water vapor trans-portation, the REM has shown its great capabilities in capturing major features of precipitation in the Eastern China, including the distribution of summer rain belt, heavy rainfall intensity and maximum rainfall location. Based on the REM's framework, an advanced REM (AREM) has been developing under cooperation with other institutes in recent years, which includes increasing resolutions in vertical and horizontal and updating physical parameterizations. The horizontal resolution could reach about 18 km. In the vertical, the model could be unevenly divided into 32 layers. The main physical process in AREM consists: (1) explicit prediction scheme in cloud and precipitation; (2) modified Betts convective adjustment scheme; (3) no-local PBL parameterization scheme; (4) a two-step shape-preserving moisture advection scheme. In addition, from REM to AREM, many attentions are paid to the coding standardization and modularization.The preliminary version of AREM has being used to study and predict the heavy rainfalls along the Yangtze River reaches. Real-time used predictions in Hunan, Hubei and Anhui provinces in recent years show the great capabilities of AREM in forecasting the heavy rainfall events over most of China region. Case studies show t

关 键 词：中国东部 汛期降水 降水过程 数值预报模式 拟和 强降水 降水预报 夏季 演变特征 地形 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P426