基于可持续发展的我国现代化进程中能源需求预测  

Energy Demand Forecast in the Process of Modernization Based on Sustainable Development in China

作　　者：郑博福[1] 王延春[1] 赵景柱[1] 邓红兵[1] 柯兵[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院生态环境研究中心系统生态重点实验室 [2]中国21世纪议程管理中心,北京100089

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2005年第1期47-51,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目 (KZCX3 -SW -4 2 3 );国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金项目 (70 3 2 5 0 0 2 )

摘　　要：在简要介绍 1980年以来我国能源消费状况 ,对我国全面建设小康社会奋斗目标和现代化战略目标分析的基础上 ,遵循可持续发展原则 ,本文采用能源强度法并设计三种方案对我国未来能源的消费量和消费结构进行了预测和分析。预测结果表明 ,2 0 2 0年我国的能源消费量将达到 2 1.16亿～ 2 4.90亿t,2 0 5 0年为 2 6.64亿～ 3 7.68亿t,今后必须大幅度降低各产业特别是第二、三产业能源强度 。China's energy consumption status in 1980-2000 was briefly described and the targets of the well-to-do society and modernization strategy were analyzed in this paper. Following these targets and the principle of sustainable development, three scenarios were designed to forecast China's energy consumption and structure with the method of energy intensity. The results indicated that energy consumption would be up to 21.16～24.90 a Hundred in 2020 and 26.64～37.68million the in 2050. Energy intensity of industries, especially that of the second and third industries, would be markedly decreased to promote sustainable development in China.

关 键 词：能源消费 预测 可持续发展 小康社会 现代化 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]