自然灾害风险的行为主体特性与时间尺度问题  

Behavior subject-oriented qualities and time scale issues of natural disaster risk

作　　者：苏桂武[1] 高庆华[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地质研究所科技部国家计委国家经贸委灾害综合研究组,北京100029 [2]科技部国家计委国家经贸委灾害综合研究组,北京100029

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2003年第1期9-16,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：地震科学联合基金资助项目(102087);国家"十五"重点科技攻关项目(2001-BA608B-13及2001-BA601B-04-02-01)

摘　　要：文章认为:要正确理解灾害风险的概念内涵,首先必须深刻认识灾害风险的行为主体特性,即,自然灾害风险是相对于行为主体———人类及其社会经济活动而言的;灾害风险依赖风险载体某种"价值"的存在而存在;灾害风险随人类某种社会经济活动目标的变化而变化。文章还认为:时间尺度问题,尽管比较复杂,但却是深刻认识、正确评价和有效管理灾害风险所必须澄清的基本问题,灾害风险中的时间尺度可通过如下几方面加以理解和认识,即,不同类别的风险载体具有不同的灾害风险有效时间尺度;不同种类的灾害风险具有不同的时间尺度特性;在不同的时间尺度上,同类灾害风险具有不同的形式和特点。The behavior subjectoriented qualities(BSOQ)and the time scale issues of natural disaster risk (NDR)are analyzed in this paper based on our related studies finished last years. The paper holds that the BSOQ must be deeply understood first, if we want to understand and grasp the conceptual connotation of NDR correctly. The BSOQ of NDR mainly embodies in the following three aspects, the first is that the NDR is oriented to the behavior subject, namely, oriented to human being and its various social and economic activities, the second is that the existence of NDR is dependent on the existence of certain 'value' of certain riskloading object(RLO), and the third is that the NDR will change with the changed aim of certain social and economic activities of human being. The paper also shows the viewpoint that the time scale issue, although rather complicated, is also the fundamental matter for profound understanding, exact assessing and sound managing NDR. The time scale issues within NDR can be understood through the following few points, the first is that different kinds of RLO usually possess different disaster riskvalid time scales, the second is that different kinds of NDR have different time scale speciality, and the third is that same kind of NDR on different time scales generally takes on different form and characteristics.

关 键 词：自然灾害风险 行为主体特性 时间尺度 风险源 风险载体 风险承担者 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]