收入不确定性对山东省城镇居民消费影响的实证分析  

Analysis of effect of uncertainty on the consumption of Shandong urban households

作　　者：杨丽[1] 黄玉林[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东轻工业学院经济管理学院,山东济南250100 [2]山东轻工业学院数理科学系,山东济南250100

出　　处：《山东轻工业学院学报（自然科学版）》2004年第4期73-77,共5页Journal of Shandong Polytechnic University

摘　　要：预防性储蓄理论认为不确定性对居民消费有负效应。本文利用《山东省统计年鉴》的有关数据对收入不确定性与我省居民消费的关系进行了经济计量分析,实证结果表明:来自收入分配差距的不确定性感受对消费有显著负效应,并且来自收入分配差距的不确定性感受比来自收入增长率波动的不确定性感受对山东省城镇居民消费的影响大,因此,缩小收分配差距是刺激消费的一项重要措施。Precaution saving theory suggests that uncertainty have a negative effect on consumption.On the basis of the datum published in Shandong Statistical Yearbook,we make use of econometric models to analyze the relationship between uncertainty of income and consumption of Shandong urban households.The results demonstrate that uncertainty coming from income distribution gap has a significant effect on consumption;moreover,the uncertainty of income growth rate is less significant than the uncertainty of income distribution gap.So we must reduce income distribution gap to enhance consumption.

关 键 词：城镇居民消费 省城 收入分配差距 不确定性 实证分析 山东 经济计量分析 影响 对消 重要措施 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济] F124.7