一、二月份用电量的预测模型  

A forecasting model for the electricity consumption in January and February

作　　者：朱韬析[1] 江道灼[1] 汪泉[2] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州310027 [2]杭州市电力局,浙江杭州310009

出　　处：《继电器》2005年第6期62-65,共4页Relay

摘　　要：针对我国一、二月份用电需求的特点,建立专门预测这两个月用电量的模型。首先用传统的预测方法预测一、二月份的总用电量,接着利用类比法或近似估算法并结合人工调节,估算待预测的一、二月份用电量的比值,最后计算得到这两个月每月用电量的预测值。这种预测方法可以避免因春节期间假期用电需求减少而导致的月负荷预测值不准确的问题。对某市一、二月份的用电量进行了实际预测,取得了较好的效果,预测精度优于其他传统预测方法,证明这种模型在负荷预测中具有较高的应用价值。Based on the traits of power requirements in January and February, a model to forecast the electricity consumption of these two months is built. Firstly, the sum of electricity consumption in those two months is forecasted by traditional methods. Then the ratio between the sum of January and February is calculated by the algorithm of analogy or approximation with manual adjustment. At last, electricity consumption of each month is got. With this model, the obvious error caused by the holidays of Spring Festival is avoided. By analyzing an actual example, it is confirmed that this method is effective in load forecasting.

关 键 词：负荷预测 总用电量 类比法 近似估算法 人工调节 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]