基于信息扩散理论的气象灾害风险评价方法  

THE METHOD OF METEOROLOGY DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT BASED ON THEORY OF INFORMATION DIFFUSION

作　　者：刘引鸽[1] 缪启龙[2] 高庆九[2] 

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院地理科学系,宝鸡721007 [2]南京气象学院环境科学系,南京210044

出　　处：《气象科学》2005年第1期84-89,共6页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家重大基础研究发展规划项目(编号:G1999043505);陕西省灾害模拟重点实验室(02Js038);自然地理重点学科项目(编号:ZK2306)共同资助

摘　　要：探讨了以灾害样本为集值的基于信息扩散的模糊数学理论模型的气象灾害风险评价方法,利用西北五省区主要农作物旱灾面积资料,对西北农业旱灾进行风险评价实例分析,通过比较表明西北农业受旱指数,成灾指数发生灾损的概率风险估计值与实际农业旱灾较吻合,该方法对灾害样本少以及小区域范围的灾害风险评价也较适合。On the basis of fuzzy mathematics theory of information diffusion, the method of meteorology disaster risk assessment is investigated with the calamity specimen. Based on the statistical data of agricultural drought areas of northwest China, the probability of agricultural drought risk is assessed by index of agricultural drought and cause of disaster, comparative analysis shows that the estimated value is consistent with actual one ,and it may apply to a few disaster specimen data and small district.

关 键 词：信息扩散 气象灾害 风险评价 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]