非线性季节型航空公司客运收入的组合预测方法  

Integrated prediction method of nonlinear-seasonal passenger traffic income of airlines

作　　者：王斐峰[1] 王琨 邓学钧[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096 [2]中国东方航空江苏有限公司,江苏南京211113

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2005年第1期66-69,共4页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

摘　　要：针对航空公司的客运收入同时具有增长性趋势和季节波动性特征,使得客运收入的变化呈现出复杂的非线性组合特点,依据灰色预测GM(1,1)模型原理,建立客运收入预测模型,以反映其增长性趋势的特点,建立客运收入季节变动预测模型,以反映其季节波动性特点,最终形成非线性季节型客运收入组合预测模型。航空公司客运收入的预测结果表明,预测值与实际值误差小于1%,该模型有效、可行。Passenger traffic income of airlines has a dual trend of growth and seasonal fluctuation, which makes the income demonstrate a complicated nonlinear characteristic. A prediction model, based on the theory of grey prediction model GM (1, 1), was introduced to reflect the characteristic of its growth trend, a seasonal change prediction model was employed to reflect the characteristic of its seasonal fluctuation, an integrated nonlinear-seasonal prediction model of passenger traffic income of airlines was proposed. Prediction results show that the error rate of actual value and test value is less than 1%, the model is feasible.

关 键 词：交通管理 客运收入 季节波动性 GM(1 1)模型 组合预测模型 

分 类 号：F560[经济管理—产业经济]