恶劣气候对高速公路车辆出行的影响  

Influence of adverse weather on vehicle trip at freeway

作　　者：王海燕[1] 项乔君[1] 陆健[1] 任英伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2005年第1期124-126,共3页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50078015)

摘　　要：针对恶劣气候条件下,出行概率与影响交通出行的气候条件、出行距离和安全设施等因素的内在关系,对出行概率与出行距离、气候特征等定量变量进行统计回归分析,并建立了模型.模型的复相关系数为84%,残差检验表明模型的线性假定成立.综合考虑安全设施对模型的影响,给出出行概率与各影响因素的综合数学模型.分析结果表明恶劣气候严重程度与交通出行概率成反比关系,恶劣气候条件下,出行距离与出行概率成正比关系,而不同的恶劣气候条件、车辆出行距离、道路安全设施完善程度对高速公路交通出行综合影响幅度在10%～50%之间.In order to analyzing the relations of vehicle trip probability with weather condition, trip distance and transportation safety facilities, the paper surveyed the number of vehicle trip at Shang-Kai freeway in severe weather, set up the regress models of vehicle trip probability with weather condition and trip distance. The complex correlativity coefficient of the models is 84%. Based on the influence of transportation safety facilities on the models, the paper summarized a compositive math model of vehicle trip probability. The results indicate that the vehicle trip probability has a direct proportion relation with trip distance and inverse proportion relation with severe weather condition, their influence degrees are 10%-50%.

关 键 词：交通安全 恶劣气候 统计分析 车辆出行 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]