近49年中国北方典型强沙尘暴事件的分形特征与R/S分析  

Time Series Fractal Characteristics of Severe Dust Storm in Recent 49 Years in North China

作　　者：乔标[1] 尹晓惠[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]北京市气象局,北京100089

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2005年第2期57-60,共4页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"水资源约束下西北干旱区域市化过程及生态效应研究 (4 0 3 3 5 0 899)资助

摘　　要：通过对195 4～2 0 0 2年我国北方的典型强沙尘暴事件的分形研究发现:该时间序列具有明显的分形特征,其饱和关联维数为3 .3 4,说明要恰当描述其变化特征,进行动力系统建模,至少需要4个状态变量;该时间序列的Kolmogorov熵近似为0 .114 2 ,说明该混沌动力系统的平均可预测时间尺度为8～9a。R S分析表明,Hurst指数能够较好的表征我国北方典型强沙尘暴事件的发生规律,可以借此推断未来相应时间段中国北方强沙尘暴事件的变化趋势。The research on time series fractal characteristics of severe dust storm in the recent 49 years in North China shows: The time series of severe dust storms in North China has fractal characteristics and its correlative dimension is 3.34 , which indicates that there should have at least 4 state variables in describing severe dust storm change characteristics and reconstructing a dynamic system. The Kolmogorov entropy of severe dust storm's time series in North China is 0.1142, which indicates that the severe dust storm dynamic system is chaotic and the forecasting time scale is about 8～9 years. R/ S analysis show that we can extrapolate and infer the changing trend of severe dust storm events in North China through Hurst exponent.

关 键 词：强沙尘暴 分形 相空间重构 R/S分析 

分 类 号：P425.55[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]