泥石流滑坡发生的降水预报方法与雨量标准——以四川省盆地区域为例  

A Precipitation Forecast Method and Rainfall Standard of Debris Flow and Landslips Happening ——Exemplar as Sichuan Basin

作　　者：郁淑华[1] 何光碧[1] 徐会明[2] 高文良[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072 [2]四川省气象台,四川成都610072

出　　处：《山地学报》2005年第2期158-164,共7页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家科技部社会公益专项资金项目 (2 0 0 1DIB2 0 10 6);四川省重点科技项目 (0 1SG0 49-0 3 );成都高原气象开放实验室基金项目 (2 0 0 3 -0 4);国家自然科学基金项目 (4 0 475 0 2 0 )共同资助~~

摘　　要：通过对η坐标数值预报模式预报的降水量检验分析,发现η坐标数值预报模式对青藏高原天气系统活动造成的四川盆地降水预报明显偏弱,且雨区偏北、偏西。我们使用风场资料对高原天气系统作自动识别,进行了对高原天气系统影响降水的强化与雨区漂移的处理,研究得出了η坐标数值预报模式释用强降水预报方法。通过对1991～2 0 0 1年四川盆地发生泥石流、滑坡灾害的气象成因(强降水)分析,研究得出了四川盆地不同的地质地貌条件下泥石流、滑坡预测雨量标准。在上述研究基础上,建立了四川盆地泥石流、滑坡产生的强降水预报方法。经2 0 0 3- 0 8～0 9业务试运行,效果较好,较成功的预报了四川盆地西部、西南部3次大暴雨过程触发的多处泥石流、滑坡灾害。Through analyzing the rainfall product of the η numerical model, we discovered that when the rain in Sichuan Basin is caused by the Tibet Plateau weather systems, the rainfall forecast of the η model differs more or less from the observation in both rain volume and rain area, usually much smaller in volume and further northwest in location. By applying wind data to distinguish the Plateau weather systems automatically on computer and correcting η model's rainfall forecast in volume and location, we first develop a set of Forecast Method of Heavy Rain. Then according to the different geology and geomorphology in Sichuan Basin, the Prediction Rainfall Standard of Debris Flow & Landslip based on the analysis of the meteorological causes(Heavy Rain)of the debris flow and landslip during 1991-2001 was established. Finally, through combining these two methods, the Precipitation Forecast Method of Debris flow & Landslip happened is formed. The method did a good job in its trial run in 2003. It predicted successfully debris flows and landslips incited by three severe torrential rains in western and southwestern Sichuan Basin.

关 键 词：泥石流滑坡 降水预报方法 雨量标准 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P642.22