不同收入人群的卷烟需求及提高税赋对他们的影响  

Demand of Different Income Groups for Cigarettes and Impact of Increasing Tax on Smokers

作　　者：毛正中[1] 胡德伟 杨功焕[3] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院,成都610041 [2]美国伯克莱加州大学公共卫生学院,伯克莱ca900241555 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心,北京100044

出　　处：《中国循证医学杂志》2005年第4期291-295,共5页Chinese Journal of Evidence-based Medicine

基　　金：美国国立卫生研究院Fogartyg国际中心资助 (资助项目号:R01TW05938-4)。~~

摘　　要：目的　利用最新的全国调查资料重新估计我国不同收入成人的卷烟需求,为制定控烟的公共卫生政策提供依据。方法　2002年在全国27个省(市、自治区)调查了16 056名不同收入的成人,采用两种模型(logistic和对数-线性模型)重新估计了我国居民不同收入人群的卷烟需求弹性。结果　发现贫困组、低收入组、中收入组和高收入组的卷烟需求价格弹性分别为-0. 589、-0 .234、-0. 017和0. 247。结论　提高卷烟税会使较低收入者更多地减少吸烟,并且对较低收入者的税赋增加也较少,即卷烟税不是累退的。Objective To re-estimate price elasticity of different income groups' demand for cigarette in terms of the lastest national tobacco consumption data and provide policy-makers with evidence to make decision on public policy of tobacco control. Methods A total of 16 056 adults of different income were surveyed in 27 provinces in 2002 and the data analyzed by using two-part model (logistic and log-linear model). Results We found that the demand elasticities were -0.589 、 -0.234 、 -0.017 and 0.247 for the poor group, low income group, middle income group and high income group, respectively. Conclusions Increasing tobacco tax will result in decreasing more cigarette consumption of lower income groups than higher groups, bearing more taxation of higher income groups than lower income groups, therefore tobacco taxation is not regressive.

关 键 词：卷烟需求 价格弹性 税收 循证政策分析 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]