青藏高原近30年气候变化趋势  

Climate Changes in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last Three Decades

作　　者：吴绍洪[1,2] 尹云鹤[1,3] 郑度[1] 杨勤业[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 [2]中国科学院青藏高原研究所,北京100085 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100039

出　　处：《地理学报》2005年第1期3-11,共9页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40171040);国家自然科学基金重点项目(40331006)~~

摘　　要：以1971～2000年青藏高原77个气象台站的观测数据(最低、最高气温,日照时数,相对湿度,风速和降水量)为基础,应用1998年FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith模型,并根据我国实际状况对其辐射项进行修正,模拟了青藏高原1971～2000年的最大可能蒸散,并由Vyshotskii模型转换为干燥度,力求说明近30年青藏高原的气候变化趋势,以及干湿状况的空间分布.应用线性回归法计算变化趋势,并用Mann-Kendall方法进行趋势检验.结果表明:青藏高原近30年气候变化的总体特征是气温呈上升趋势,降水呈增加趋势,最大可能蒸散呈降低趋势,大多数地区的干湿状况有由干向湿发展的趋势.气候因子与地表干湿状况间并不是线性关系,存在很大的不确定性.The Tibetan Plateau is one of the best places to study global climate change. Aridity or humidity status of land surface is an important outcome that has close relations with a set of climatic factors such as precipitation, temperature, solar radiation, relative humidity and wind, but the relationship between them is complicated. This paper calculated potential evapotranspiration by applying Penman-Monteith model which was recommended by FAO in 1998, and aridity index by Vyshotskii model to indicate aridity or humidity status of the Tibetan Plateau during the period 1971-2000. Then it analyzed the changing trends of observed climatic factors (temperature and precipitation) and calculated factors (potential evapotranspiration and aridity index), and showed the spatial distribution of aridity/humidity status over the Tibetan Plateau during the period 1971-2000. Trends calculated by linear regression were tested through Mann-Kendall test. Results of 77 meteorological stations on the Tibetan Plateau showed that the main trends of climate change are temperature rise and precipitation increase; potential evapotranspiration decrease and most of the areas was ascending to more humid status. Results suggested that aridity or humidity status cannot be presented only with precipitation.

关 键 词：青藏高原 气候变化 最大可能蒸散 干燥度 干湿状况 空间分布 气温 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]