基于遥感信息的华北冬小麦区域生长模型及模拟研究  

STUDY ON WINTER WHEAT REGIONAL SIMULATION MODEL BASED ON REMOTE SENSING DATA AND IT'S SIMULATIONS IN NORTH CHINA

作　　者：马玉平[1] 王石立[1] 张黎[1] 侯英雨 庄立伟[1] 王馥棠[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象学报》2005年第2期204-215,共12页Acta Meteorologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40275035)。

摘　　要：卫星遥感估产和作物生长模拟在作物监测和产量预测方面有各自不可替代的优势。但是,遥感估产难以揭示作物生长发育和产量形成的内在机理,作物模拟在区域应用时初始值的获取和参数的区域化遇到很多困难。如何利用二者的互补性使其相互结合受到人们关注。该文在Wofost模型本地化和区域化的基础上,首次利用同化法的思路探讨了MODIS遥感信息与华北冬小麦生长模拟模型结合的可行性和方法,初步建立了潜在生产水平(水分适宜条件)下区域遥感-作物模拟框架模型(WSPFRS模型)。模拟结果显示:WSPFRS模型对区域尺度的出苗期重新初始化后,模拟的开花期、成熟期空间分布的准确性比Wofost模拟结果有所改进;利用遥感信息对区域尺度上返青期生物量重新初始化后,模拟贮存器官干重的空间分布更接近实际单产的分布,贮存器官干重的高值区与实际高产区基本相符。该研究将为下一步实际水分供应条件下基于遥感信息的冬小麦区域生长模拟研究奠定了基础。Accurate crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting are significant to food security and sustainable development of agriculture. Crop yield estimation by remote sensing and crop growth simulation models have highly potential application in crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting. However, both of them has limitations in mechanism or regional application, respectively. Therefore, approach and methodology study on combination of remote sensing data and crop growth simulation models are concerned by many researchers. Wofost based on adjustment and regionalization in North China and adjusted Sail-Prospect were coupled by I_ LA to simulate soil adjusted vegetation index (I_ SAV) of crop canopy, by which crop model was re-initialed by minimizing differences between simulated and synthesized I_ SAV from remote sensing data using an optimization software (FSEOPT). Thus, a regional remote-sensing-crop-simulation-framework-model (WSPFRS) was established in potential production level (optimal soil water condition). The results were as follows: after re-initializing regional emergence date by using remote sensing data, anthesis and maturity date simulated by WSPFRS model were more close to measured values than simulated results of Wofost; by re-initializing regional biomass weight at turn-green stage, spatial distribution of simulated storage organ weight were more consistent to measured yields and the area with high values nearly consisted to actual high yield area. This research would be a foundation of developing regional crop model in water stress production level based on remote sensing data.

关 键 词：遥感信息 模拟研究 生长模型 华北 麦区 作物生长模拟 作物生长发育 生长模拟模型 遥感估产 模拟结果 区域尺度 空间分布 MODIS 产量预测 作物监测 内在机理 产量形成 区域应用 相互结合 思路探讨 框架模型 适宜条件 生产水平 

分 类 号：P627[天文地球—地质矿产勘探] S157.1[天文地球—地质学]