基于灰色预测与模式识别的企业危机预警模型研究  

The Research about Model of Early-warning of Enterprise Crisis Basedon Gray Forecasting and Pattern Recognition

作　　者：孙星[1] 邱菀华[1] 唐葆君[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100083 [2]江西财经大学金融学院,江西南昌330013

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2005年第5期36-42,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70372011);高校博士点专项科研基金(20030006009)

摘　　要：　针对当前大部分企业危机预警模型只能报警,不能预测的现状,提出一种基于灰色预测与模式识别的预警方法.该方法首先对企业运营的单项特征指标建立灰色模型,其次将所有指标的模型组合起来,构成系统状态方程进行预测,然后利用模式识别的方法对预测结果进行分类,判断企业的危机状态,最后用实例验证该模型的有效性.Due to most of current early-warning of enterprise crisis only give a alarm other forecast, the paper presents a method based on gray forecasting and pattern recognition. Firstly, gray forecasting model is built for single feature index respectively, and various models are combined in system state formula to forecast. Then the calculating result is classified to judge state of enterprise with the pattern recognition model. Finally, the case is verified to.

关 键 词：灰色预测 模式识别 企业危机预警 

分 类 号：F270.5[经济管理—企业管理]