试用灰色建模作登陆我国东南沿海的热带气旋预报  

Forecast of Tropical Cyclones in Landing in China Southeast Sea-board with A Gray Prediction Mode GM ( 1, 1 )

作　　者：周雁翎[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军南海舰队海洋水文气象中心,广东湛江524001

出　　处：《海洋通报》2005年第3期56-59,65,共5页Marine Science Bulletin

摘　　要：根据1970-2003年的热带气旋资料,采用GM(1,1)灰色模型,建立预报方程,对历年来登陆我国东南沿海的热带气旋个数偏多的年份进行模拟和试报,经检验效果良好。在此基础上,对未来登陆我国东南沿海热带气旋个数偏多的年份进行了预报,结论是2009年和2010年为灾变年份,即在这2年中登陆我国东南沿海的热带气旋个数将大于等于10个。A gray prediction equation is set up in this paper adopting the tropical cyclone data from 1970-2003 and a gray prediction mode GM ( 1,1) to forecast the disastrous years. The disastrous years refer to those in which the number of the tropical cyclones landing in China's southeast sea-board is far more than the average. Based on the equation, those isastrous years in 1970 - 1996 are simulated and those disastrous years in 1997 -2003 are test-forecasted. By checking, the effect is all right. And then the disastrous years are further predicted. The conclusion is that 2009 and 2010 will be disastrous years, namely, in there two years, the number of tropical cyclones landing in China's southeast sea-board will be more than or equal to 10.

关 键 词：GM(1 1) 灰色预测模型 登陆 东南沿海 热带气旋 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]