系统动力学模型用于城市需水量预测  

Application of System Dynamics Model for Urban Water Demand Prediction

作　　者：刘俊良[1] 臧景红[2] 何延青[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北建筑工程学院城市建设系,河北张家口075024 [2]哈尔滨工业大学环保科技股份有限公司博士后工作站,黑龙江哈尔滨150078

出　　处：《中国给水排水》2005年第6期31-34,共4页China Water & Wastewater

基　　金：河北省教育厅2002年博士基金资助项目(B2002205)

摘　　要：将系统动力学方法运用于城市需水量预测,其建立的模型可以全面地考虑各种主要因素对城市需水量的影响,较好地解决社会及经济发展水平等影响城市需水量预测所产生的误差问题。结果表明,应用系统动力学模型预测城市需水量,系统性强,预测结果准确度高。System dynamics method was used for urban water demand prediction, the model established was able to give an overall considerations to all factors affecting urban water demand, and give a favorable solution to the errors in prediction of water demand due to social and economic development level. The result shows that application of system dynamics model to predict urban water demand has the advantages of strong systematicness and high accuracy of prediction result.

关 键 词：系统动力学 城市需水量 预测模型 

分 类 号：TU991[建筑科学—市政工程]