加格达奇地区落叶松球果花蝇危害的预测  

Damage Forecast of Strobilomyia spp. in Jiagedaqi Region

作　　者：尹艳豹[1] 赵启凯 姜兴林 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学,哈尔滨150040 [2]大兴安岭地区营林局

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2005年第4期14-15,39,共3页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：黑龙江省攻关项目(679919903)

摘　　要：在大兴安岭地区种子园,连续12年调查了落叶松球果被害率及其相应气象因子,利用SPSS统计软件在相关分析的基础上,采用主成分分析方法确定了影响球果被害率的主要气候因子,并采用多元线性回归预测方法,建立了球果被害率与4月份平均气温X10、1月份最低气温X13之间的预测模型。The percentage of cone damaged by Strobilomyia spp. was investigated at larch orchards in Daxing'anling region from 1987 to 1998, and the data of its corresponding meteorologic factors were used to forecast the damage of Strobil omyia in the future. Based on the correlative analysis with SPSS software, the main meteorologic factors influencing the percentage of damaged cones were dete rmined by principal component analysis. A forecasting model for the percentage o f damaged cones was established using average temperature in April (X_10 ) and minimum temperature in January (X_13) with multiple linear r egression forcast method.

关 键 词：落叶松球果花蝇 SPSS统计软件 主成分分析方法 危害 大兴安岭地区 多元线性回归 被害率 气象因子 相关分析 气候因子 预测方法 平均气温 预测模型 最低气温 种子园 X10 4月份 1月份 

分 类 号：S763.712.2[农业科学—森林保护学] F72[农业科学—林学]