基于最大Lyapunov指数方法预测油田产量  

FORCASTING PRODUCTION RATE BASED ON LARGEST LYAPUNOV EXPONENT

作　　者：朱义东[1] 李玉林[2] 黄炳光[1] 王怒涛[1] 唐坚[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油学院石油工程学院,四川成都610500 [2]塔里木油田勘探事业部,新疆塔里木841000 [3]吉林油田分公司采油工艺研究所,吉林松原138003

出　　处：《西南石油学院学报》2005年第3期32-33,i003,共3页Journal of Southwest Petroleum Institute

摘　　要：传统的预测方法是先建立数据序列的主观模型,然后根据主观模型进行计算和预测,而混沌科学的发展使得不必事先建立主观模型,直接根据数据序列本身所计算出来的客观规律(如Lyapunov指数等)进行预测,避免预测的人为主观性。提出适用于小数据序列的方法,几乎利用了所有的数据信息,能够计算出比较精确的Lyapunov指数。结果表明:该方法可靠、计算量小、相对易操作,精度高,并能得出最大预测时间。Traditional forcasting method is to establish subjective model of data series firstly, then calculate and forecast according to subjective model. With the development of chaotic science, it doesnt have to establish subjective model beforehand, but forecasts directly and subjectivity of forecasting can be avoided by objective laws ( as Lyapunov exponent etc. ) calculated by data series themselves. The method put forward by this paper applies small data series, almost utilizes all available data information, and can calculate accurate lyapunov exponent. Results show that the method is credible with small calculation amount, easy operation relatively, high precision, and is able to get maximal forecasting time.

关 键 词：最大LYAPUNOV指数 小数据量方法 混沌时间序列 预测 

分 类 号：TE313.8[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]