城市自然灾害风险评价的一级模型  

ONE LEVEL MODEL OF RISK EVALUATION ON CITY NATURAL DISASTER

作　　者：黄崇福[1] 史培军[1] 张远明[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学资源与环境科学系

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》1994年第1期3-8,共6页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家教委八五重点科学技术项目

摘　　要：本文分析了以往概率风险存在的问题,用模糊集手段定义了城市自然灾害的可能性风险,并提出了一级综合评价模型。本文提供的方法,由于能较广泛地对有关信息进行分析,从而可提高风险评价的可行性和可能性。This paper analyses the problems occurring generally in the past in risk evaluation on city natural disaster by means of probability method, defines the possibility one based on fuzzy set and finally offers a one-level model for comprehensive evaluation. It is believed that the method put forward by this paper can thoroughly examine informations concerned and thus improves the feasibility and reliability of risk evaluation.

关 键 词：危险概率 模糊数 自然灾害 城市 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]