6—7月江苏区域5天暴雨趋势中期预报系统  

MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST SYSTEM FOR RAINSTORM OF JIANGSU PROVINCE IN JUNE AND JULY

作　　者：朱正心[1] 吴美云[1] 邓华军[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台,南京210008

出　　处：《气象科学》1994年第3期259-266,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

摘　　要：本文介绍了江苏省气象台研制的区域暴雨中期预报系统．该系统选用距离系数相似法、指数相似法等统计方法将欧洲中心预报的500hPa高度场与历史上500hPa高度场找相似，及中期暴雨天气过程概念模式制作预报．从天气学意义出发，用ECMWF预报的500hPa高度场、850kPa风场、温度场建立了一系列的中期时效的暴雨预报指标。该系统从ECMWF的格点资料处理到预报结果的给出，全部是由计算机自动连续进行的，在日常业务工作中使用有迅速、及时、准确的优点。This article introduces a methed of medium-range forecast of rainstorm that has just been made by Jiangsu Meteorological observatory, The 500 hPa avreage drculation during district rainstorm proceseses throughout the province is classified. According to the background of district rainstorm circulation, weather system and physical variables and fields. The coucept Pattern of mediumrange forecast of rain storm processes is used to make forecast index of various kind of circulation patterns. Numerical forecast products from European Medium-range Forecast Centre are processed by computer, and thus produce forecasts in 5 days and the forecast of whether there will be rain storms or not

关 键 词：暴雨 降水预报 中期预报系统 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]