ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY AND SCENARIOS OF URBANIZATION IN ARID AREA——A Case Study in Wuwei City of Gansu Province  

作　　者：YOUFei LIYu DONGSuo-cheng 

机构地区：[1]CenterforEconomicDevelopmentofChinaStateFarms,Beijing100810,P.R.China [2]InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResouresResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,P.R.China

出　　处：《Chinese Geographical Science》2005年第2期120-130,共11页中国地理科学（英文版）

基　　金：Under theauspicesofKey Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No .90102013) and KeyInnovationSub-projectof Chinese Academy of Sciences(No .KZCX1-10-07-04 )

摘　　要：Based on data of questionnaire and field survey and two developing models of Business As Usual (BAU) and the Intensive Urbanization (IU), this article, taking Wuwei City, a medium size city and typical oasis arid area in Gansu Province with very vulnerable and sensitive natural environment but long history of oasis economy, as an example, evaluated the sustainability of its environment and analyzed the scenarios of Wuwei’s household energy consumption, waste discharge in transportation industry, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, by the integration of the systematical dynamics model Stella and Polestar language to simulate the future development of the research area. The results showed that, first, the developing model of IU was propitious to Wuwei City named for oasis economy and vulnerable natural environment. The strategy of "Intensive Urbanization" can change the structure of energy utilization, and improve the efficiency of energy utilization. Second, the proportion of domestic energy consumption will decrease with industrialization and economic development, while that of tertiary industry, secondary industry and transportation will gradually grow up according to strategy of "Intensive Urbanization". Third, the Wuwei City is facing a severe eco-environmental crisis under the conventional patterns of development and a better future under a sustainable urbanization scenario, in the next 10 to 20 years. The different developing trends were clarified and the relative countermeasures were put forward for the policy makers according to the driving forces.Based on data of questionnaire and field survey and two developing models ofBusiness As Usual (BAU) and the Intensive Urbanization (IU), this article, taking Wuwei City, amedium size city and typical oasis arid area in Gansu Province with very vulnerable and sensitivenatural environment but long history of oasis economy, as an example, evaluated the sustainabilityof its environment and analyzed the scenarios of Wuwei's household energy consumption, wastedischarge in transportation industry, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, bythe integration of the systematical dynamics model Stella and Polestar language to simulate thefuture development of the research area. The results showed that, first, the developing model of IUwas propitious to Wuwei City named for oasis e-conomy and vulnerable natural environment. Thestrategy of 'Intensive Urbanization' can change the structure of energy utilization, and improve theefficiency of energy utilization. Second, the proportion of domestic energy consumption willdecrease with industrialization and economic development, while that of tertiary industry, secondaryindustry and transportation will gradually grow up according to strategy of 'IntensiveUrbanization'. Third, the Wuwei City is facing a severe eco-environmental crisis under theconventional patterns of development and a better future under a sustainable urbanization scenario,in the next 10 to 20 years. The different developing trends were clarified and the relativecountermeasures were put forward for the policy makers according to the driving forces.

关 键 词：impact of urbanization on environment sustainability of eco-environment scenario analysis Wuwei City arid area 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]