回归与自回归的叠合模型在港口吞吐量预测中的应用  

APPLICATION OF COMPOSED MODEL OF REGRESSION(CURVE FITTING) WITH AUTOREGRESSION IN PREDICTION OF HARBOUR HANDLING CAPACITY

作　　者：柴加龙 周起舞[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州大学,杭州310028

出　　处：《海洋通报》1995年第3期93-98,共6页Marine Science Bulletin

摘　　要：应用回归(曲线拟合)与自回归相结合的分析方法,对浙江省某海港的吞吐量进行预测。选用增长函数Logistic曲线描述其长期趋势,并与残差的一阶自回归模型相结合,构造叠合模型作为港口吞吐量预测模型。Prediction of handling capacity of a harbour in Zhejiang Province is carried out by integrating regression (curve fitting)with autoregression analysis. The Logistic growth function is used to fit long-term tendency of handling capacity. A model composed of the first autoregres-sion model AR(1) set up by using auto-correlation of the random error is recommended to be taken as the prediction model for harbour handling capacity.

关 键 词：港口 吞吐量 回归分析 叠合模型 

分 类 号：F552.6[经济管理—产业经济]