T63模式对暴雨短期预报能力的分析检验  

Verification of the Forecast Capability of T63L16 Numerical Model on Short-Range Heavy Rains

作　　者：杨克明[1] 赵梅[1] 钱传海[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心

出　　处：《气象》1995年第7期38-42,共5页Meteorological Monthly

摘　　要：利用Ｔ６３模式的５００ｈＰａ数值形势预报图和客观分析实况图，对１９９４年７—９月我国出现的１２次较大范围暴一大暴雨天气过程的影响天气系统进行了预报能力的分析检验，并分析了产生误差的原因，所得结果有利于数值预报产品的释用及实时预报业务。By using 500hPa circulation pattern forecast and objective analysis produced by T63L16 NWP model,the 24-,48- and 72-hour forecast capabilities for the affecting systems of totally 12 processes of heavy rains which occured from July to September in 1994 are verified and assessed.These systems include trough of low pressure,shear line,tropical cyclone,coastal ridge, West Asia ridge,subtropical ridge and mid-latitude front zone. The results obtained will be helpful for the explanation and application of NWP products and real-time operational prediction.

关 键 词：暴雨 短期预报 预报能力 降水预报 T63模式 

分 类 号：P457.9[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]