用灰色动态模型预测恶性肿瘤死亡率发展趋势  

THE GROWING TREND OF MORTALITY RATE OF CARCINOMA PREDICTED BY GREY DYNAMIC MODE

作　　者：张天德[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川省双流县卫生防疫站

出　　处：《现代预防医学》1995年第2期113-114,121,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：用灰色动态模型（ＧＭ＜１，１＞）拟合我县１９７７－１９９０年前６位恶性肿瘤死亡率，预测值与实际值一致性好，外推预测１９９１－２０００年我县恶性肿瘤死亡率上升，男性恶性肿瘤死亡率比女性上升明显。肺癌和肠癌上升速度最快，其次为肝癌和胃癌。男性白血病下降，其余５种癌症上升；女性食道癌、肝癌、胃癌下降，白血病、肺癌上升。Simulation with the leading 6 caners in our county between 1977 and 1990 used by Grey dynamic mode(GM(1.1)), predictive value is consistent with actual value(accordingly to consistence test, only one rc=0. 40 among 21rcs,the others are lower than 0. 50). From these data, it may be conclued that, the mortality rate of caner will rise in our county from 1991 to 2000,the rate in male will be higher than in female, The highest rate will be of pulmonary carcinoma and of intestinal carcinoma, seccondly, of heptic cancer and of carcinoma of stomach. In male, the rate of leukemia will be down, of others will be high. In female, the rate of esophagus, heptic and carcinoma of stomach will be down, the rate of leukemia, of carcinoma of stomach will be high.

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 灰色动态模型 死亡率 癌 

分 类 号：R730.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]