面向产品市场周期的配件需求预测与供应策略  

Requirement prediction and supply strategy of spare parts for a product market cycle

作　　者：刘德顺 徐小艳[3] 黄良沛[3] 岳文辉 De-shun Xiao-yan Liang-pei Wen-hui 

机构地区：[1]湖南科技大学机械设备健康维护湖南省重点实验室,湖南湘潭411201 [2]知识处理与网络化制造湖南省普通高等学校重点实验室,湖南湘潭411201 [3]湖南科技大学机械设备健康维护湖南省重点实验室,湖南湘潭,411201 [4]知识处理与网络化制造湖南省普通高等学校重点实验室,湖南湘潭,411201

出　　处：《湖南科技大学学报（自然科学版）》2010年第3期19-23,共5页Journal of Hunan University of Science And Technology：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展973计划项目(2003CB31700);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50875082)

摘　　要：针对机电产品市场周期中配件需求预测与供应问题,应用系统工程方法,基于机电产品及其易损耗零部件的失效时间分布密度函数,发展面向机电产品市场周期的机电产品配件需求预测模型,继而提出机电产品配件生产与供应策略.以机电产品及零件的寿命分布满足正态分布函数为例,通过数值仿真,分析探讨了产品及零件失效时间分布密度函数的参数和生产批量对零件替换率和配件需求量的影响;提出了基于机电产品及零件寿命正态分布的配件生产供应方案,与常规方法对比分析表明了所提出方法的优越性.这对于有效地组织配件生产和指导配件库存管理,提高机电产品维修和售后服务水平具有重要意义.In order to solve the problem of requirement prediction and supply of spare parts in a electromechanical product market cycle,using system engineering approaches,the service age distribution and replacement rate of the parts were investigated based on their time-to-failure density function of the products and the parts,and the model of spare parts requirement prediction for electromechanical products market cycle is developed.Then spare parts production and supply strategies for electromechanical products are proposed by means of simulation.For products and parts with the normal time-to-failure density function,throughout simulation,the influence of the parameters of normal density function and production batch on the part replacement and spare parts requirement is discussed.Then,a new spare parts production and supply strategy is given based on simulation and compared with the traditional production and supply strategy.The results is illuminated that the new strategy is more reasonable.It is significant to effectively organize spare parts production and supply and to enhance maintenance and service level for manufactures and agents.

关 键 词：面向产品 市场周期 配件 需求预测模型 供应策略 PRODUCT spare PARTS 机电产品 正态分布函数 时间分布 生产批量 密度函数 零件寿命 系统工程方法 数值仿真 寿命分布 零件失效 库存管理 供应问题 供应方案 

分 类 号：N[自然科学总论]