大气水文耦合模式在洪水预报中的应用研究  

Review on Coupling Atmospheric and Hydrological Model and Its Application in Flood Forecasting

作　　者：张俊 郭生练[2] 陈桂亚 陈飞[3] 

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072 [3]长江航道规划设计研究院,湖北武汉430011

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2010年第9期37-40,81,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50679063);国际科技合作基金资助重点项目(2005DFA20520);湖北省自然科学基金资助项目(2007ABA061)

摘　　要：在简介数值天气预报模式和水文模型发展历程的基础上,综述了数值预报与水文模型的耦合模式在洪水预报中的研究进展,指出了耦合的关键技术和应用中存在的不足,并探讨了将大气水文耦合模式应用于洪水预报时应着重提高降水预报的精度、进一步完善降水预报的评定方法及增加预报的不确定性分析。Based on briefly introducing the development history of numeric weather prediction models and hydrological models,coupling numeric prediction and hydrological model and its application in flood forecasting are summarized.The key technologies and shortcomings in applications are pointed out.Finally,it puts forwards that much attempt must be focused on the following aspects in the future to improve the reliability of flood forecasting by using the coupled forecasting model: raising the precision of precipitation forecasting;making a better criterion for assessment the results of precipitation forecasting and adding uncertainty analysis of forecasting.

关 键 词：大气 水文模型 耦合模式 洪水预报 应用研究 APPLICATION 数值天气预报模式 降水预报 不确定性分析 研究进展 数值预报 评定方法 模式应用 关键技术 型发展 精度 基础 

分 类 号：TK79[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程] TV7[水利工程—水利水电工程]