流域年径流时间序列的奇异谱分析  

Application of Singular Spectrum Analysis to Annual Runoff Time Series in River Basin

作　　者：李亚伟[1] 詹卫华[1] 卫东山[2] 董青[1] 

机构地区：[1]水利部综合事业局,北京100053 [2]新华水利水电投资公司,北京100005

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2010年第10期19-22,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：全国重点湿地水环境保护行动财政基金资助项目;国家自然科学基金资助项目(70973013)

摘　　要：将奇异谱分析(SSA)法应用于新疆维吾尔自治区伊犁河雅马渡站年径流预报,分析了流域多年径流时间序列奇异谱,提取年径流序列的时间主成分量,重构了原序列中的周期震荡成分,获得了径流时间序列规律,并采用时间序列分析中的AR(p)自回归模型预测了流域年径流序列。实例结果表明,SSA法具有较好的实用性,为深入研究流域径流规律提供了依据。The method of Singular Spectrum Analysis(SSA) is adopted to forecast runoff time series of Yamadu hydrologic station in Yili river basin,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.Singular spectrum of the annual runoff time series is analyzed by using SSA.The time principle components of runoff time series are extracted and then the periodic fluctuant components of the original time series are reconstructed and its internal rule is obtained.On the basis of SSA,auto regression(AR) model is used to predict annual runoff time series.The instance result shows that the SSA is a practicable method for studying the rules of river basin runoff.

关 键 词：流域 年径流时间序列 奇异谱分析 Time Series Annual RUNOFF Singular Spectrum Analysis 新疆维吾尔自治区 时间序列分析 回归模型预测 年径流序列 周期震荡 径流预报 规律 主成分 原序列 伊犁河 实用性 SSA 重构 提取 

分 类 号：TK79[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程] TV7[水利工程—水利水电工程]