动态微分模拟方法在油气田开发投资预测中的应用  

Application of Dynamic Differential Method on Investment Forecast of Reservoir Development

作　　者：汪萍[1] 常毓文[1] 郭晓飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《内蒙古石油化工》2010年第21期1-4,共4页Inner Mongolia Petrochemical Industry

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2008ZX05043)资助

摘　　要：根据灰色预测基本理论,在GM(1,n)建模的基础上,充分考虑各指标因素之间的关联性和制约性,建立了油田开发投资预测的动态微分模拟方法,该方法可以根据历史信息实现功能同构,构造多时间序列数据,能够很好地用于油田开发投资成本预测。以国内某油田为例,进行油田开发投资动态微分模拟预测,预测投资与实际投资误差为0.127%。结果表明,动态微分模拟方法具有较好的准确性和适用性。According to the grey forecast theory,a dynamic differential method on investment forecast of reservoir development was established based on the GM(1,n) model.The new method can fully take the association and restrain of different factors into account?and construct multi-time data.It is a better way for reservoir development investment forecast.Application case shows that this model and its solving method are easily operated and can provide decision basis in the fields of risk and income for oil-gas product...

关 键 词：时间序列分析 灰色预测 最小二乘法 动态模拟微分方程 响应函数 

分 类 号：TE32[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]