基于SPI指数的土壤含水率模拟  

Soil water content simulation based on SPI index

作　　者：陈根发 王海锋[3] 秦大庸[1,2] 高学睿 

机构地区：[1]流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [3]水利部发展研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2012年第1期98-100,104,共4页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：基金委创新研究群体基金(51021006);国家自然科学重点基金(40830637);国家"973"计划(2006CB403401)

摘　　要：基于标准化降水指数(SPI),利用多元回归方法和自相关模型结合,建立了一套简单、实用的土壤含水率模拟方法。实测站点的检验表明,该方法的均方差与观测平均值的比值达到0.16左右。该方法能够快速、准确地模拟土壤含水率,为农业生产抗旱提供数据支撑。Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),a set of simple,practicable methods for the simulation on soil water content is established with the combination between the multi-regression method and the self-correlation model.The tests made in the actual measuring stations show that the ratio between the mean square errors of the methods and the observed mean values can reach around 0.16.Therefore,the methods can quickly and correctly simulate the soil water content,and then can provide a relevant support for the drought mitigation for agriculture.

关 键 词：SPI指数 多元回归 自回归模型 土壤含水率 

分 类 号：S15[农业科学—土壤学]