中长期电力负荷的变权灰色组合预测模型  

GRAY VARIABLE WEIGHT COMBINATION MODEL FOR MIDDLE AND LONG TERM LOAD FORECASTING

作　　者：余健明[1] 燕飞[1] 杨文宇[1] 夏超[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学电气工程系,陕西省西安市710048

出　　处：《电网技术》2005年第17期26-29,共4页Power System Technology

摘　　要：提出了一种基于灰色理论的中长期负荷变权组合预测模型,通过分析负荷曲线走向,对不同变化趋势的阶段组合后建立不同的灰色模型分别进行预测,通过基于累加残差的变权组合预测得到最终结果,简单有效地将变权组合预测应用到电力负荷预测中。实例计算证明了该模型在中长期电力负荷预测中的有效性,该模型兼具了灰色模型的简单性和变权组合预测的精确性。A gray theory based middle and long term load forecasting method using variable weight combination model is proposed. Analyzing the trend of load curve, the loads at different stages are respectively forecasted with different gray models established by combining the stages with different variation trends, then through the variable weight combination forecasting based on accumulating residual errors the final result is obtained. The proposed method simply and effectively realizes the application of variable weight combination prediction to load forecasting. Case calculation results show that the proposed method possesses both simplicity of gray model and accuracy of variable weight combination prediction, so it is effective in middle and long tem load forecasting.

关 键 词：负荷预测 灰色模型 组合预测 变权 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]