基于稳健回归的电网高峰负荷预测模型应用  

The Application of Peak Load Forecasting Based on Robust Regression Model

作　　者：柳进[1] 唐降龙[1] 于继来[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2005年第5期56-59,67,共5页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

摘　　要：在分析高峰负荷特点的基础上,建立了基于稳健回归模型的高峰负荷预测方法。该方法具有较强的稳健性,适应异常情况下的样本数据,能保持较满意预测精度。通过对辽宁省2002年电网负荷数据的预测模拟,验证了本文高峰预测方法的有效性。In this paper, the peak load forecasting method based on robust regression is proposed by analyzing the peculiarities of the peak load. This method has more strong robustness, suits the sample data in singular conditions and can keep a certain forecasting precision. Through the prediction simulation of the load data of electric wire netting of Liaoning Province in 2002, been the validity of the peak Forecasting method of this paper.

关 键 词：高峰负荷预测 回归模型 稳健回归 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计] TN734[理学—数学]