近50年广东省旱灾受灾面积的时序分形研究  

Study on the time- series fractal charateristics of being effected area of drought disaster in Guangdong at the last fifty year

作　　者：周凌云[1] 

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学地理系,广东广州510631

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2005年第3期34-36,共3页Territory & Natural Resources Study

摘　　要：应用非线性动力系统的理论分析了广东省1950￣1999年的旱灾受灾面积时序变化的混沌特性;通过重构其嵌入的相空间达到恢复系统复杂的动力机制;经计算表明,该时间序列分布具有分形特性,是一混沌的时间序列;其饱和关联维数d为1.884,相应的饱和嵌入维数为6,即:该系统的有效自由度为6个;初步给出了系统的影响因子;经计算反映系统混沌程度的指标Kolmogorov熵K=0.1135,结果显示它的平均可预报尺度在8￣9年。In this paper,analyze the impetus of the affected area of drought in GuangDong from 1950 to 1999 by using the theory of nonlinear dynamics system.The impetus of drought disater system is regained through the rebuiltion of the time series imdedding space; the results show that this time-series has factal characteristics and is chaotic time-series.Its saturated correlative dimension is1.884; the affective degree of freedom is 6; the average predictable years is no more than 8 to 9 years.

关 键 词：广东省 旱灾受灾面积 分形 关联雏教 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]