Markov决策过程在船舶结构维修中的应用  

The Application of Markov Decision Process in Ship Hull Maintenance

作　　者：江晓俐[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《中国造船》2005年第3期85-91,共7页Shipbuilding of China

摘　　要：船舶腐蚀和疲劳是导致船体老化,进而使其逐渐丧失结构承载能力的重要原因。本文采用具有无后效性的Markov链来模拟船体结构老化过程,其状态空间由完好(不需要维修)、可见裂纹维修、油漆和阴极防护维修、腐蚀修理、疲劳裂纹修理、腐蚀疲劳组合修理和完全失效共计七种状态组成。每一状态均可采取无修理、修理和更新三者之一的维修方案。通过迭代来获得最佳维修方案以实现单位时间成本最低的维修优化目标。算例表明,Markov链可以合理地模拟船舶结构的老化过程,并可方便快捷地运用于船舶维修经济论证。Ship corrosion and fatigue are two important factors which result m stop hull degradation and the loss of load-carrying capacity. In this paper, Markov Decision Process（MDP） is applied to simulate ship hull deterioration, whose state space consists of 7 states in accordance with deterioration extent of ship hull, i.e. perfection, noticeable crack repair, corrosion protection system repair, corrosion repair, fatigue crack repair, both corrosion and fatigue repair, and failure. With regard to each state, one of three maintenance approaches, e.g. no repair, repair and replacement, is utilized. The optimal maintenance policy is determined by means of maintenance policy iteration process in order to achieve the minimum long-run cost rate. An example is presented to illustrate the application of MDP in ship hull maintenance and its advantage in economical assessment. The importance of parameter determi nation in MDP is stressed and effort will be made to build up maintenance database.

关 键 词：船舶 舰船工程 船舶维修 Markov决策过程(MDP) 优化 单位时间成本 经济论证 

分 类 号：U672[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]